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We find that the observed declines are unlikely to be driven by changes in the quality of published science, citation practices or field-specific factors. Subsequently, we link this decline in disruptiveness to a narrowing in the use of previous knowledge, allowing us to reconcile the patterns we observe with the ‘shoulders of giants’ view.

This pattern holds universally across fields and is robust across multiple different citation- and text-based metrics 1, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17. We find that papers and patents are increasingly less likely to break with the past in ways that push science and technology in new directions. Here, we analyse these claims at scale across six decades, using data on 45 million papers and 3.9 million patents from six large-scale datasets, together with a new quantitative metric-the CD index 12-that characterizes how papers and patents change networks of citations in science and technology.

Yet contrary to this view, studies suggest that progress is slowing in several major fields 10, 11. Recent decades have witnessed exponential growth in the volume of new scientific and technological knowledge, thereby creating conditions that should be ripe for major advances 8, 9. Theories of scientific and technological change view discovery and invention as endogenous processes 1, 2, wherein previous accumulated knowledge enables future progress by allowing researchers to, in Newton’s words, ‘stand on the shoulders of giants’ 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.

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